Choose the orders to model
Use orders currently at or above threshold A and below threshold B. Use total monthly orders only when they all fit that range.
Free Shopify planning tool
Shopify Free Shipping Threshold Calculator: Profit & Break-Even
Model both ways a higher threshold can add profit: shoppers raise their basket to reach it, or stay below it and pay shipping. Then optionally account for lost orders.
Basket-lift profit
Saved shipping
Optional order-loss check
Quick monthly estimate
How much could threshold B add?
Keep conversion steady and explore how orders split between reaching B and staying below B.
Quick answer
Potential added profit in this scenario
Added basket margin plus saved shipping, with conversion held steady.
Combined scenario
Extra basket value when reaching B
Added profit per order reaching B
Shipping subsidy saved per order staying below
Review these economics
A scenario—not a forecast.
This assumes the modeled orders still convert and uses one group average rather than every individual basket. Orders reaching B add product margin; orders staying below add shipping savings. Only a real test can reveal which orders choose each path and whether conversion changes.
How the free shipping threshold math works
Model orders that reach B
Basket increase × gross margin gives added profit for each order that rises to the new threshold and keeps free shipping.
Model orders that stay below
Orders that still convert below B pay shipping. The calculator counts the merchant-funded shipping cost as savings.
Blend, then test the split
Move the split control to compare outcomes. Only an experiment can reveal the real mix and any conversion change.
What this calculator cannot tell you
It cannot predict shopper response
A more reachable threshold might lift conversion or basket size, while a higher threshold might reduce orders. Only observed test data can show that response.
It is not a full profit-and-loss model
Taxes, discounts, returns, payment fees, shipping zones, product mix, and customer acquisition costs are outside this simplified contribution model.
For a more realistic input, use a historical order export to count orders from current threshold A to below candidate B. Then read how to A/B test a free shipping threshold in Shopify before changing your long-term policy.
FAQ
What is a good free shipping threshold for Shopify?
A sensible candidate should cover its shipping subsidy within your margins and be realistic for shoppers to reach. This calculator can screen candidates, but a controlled experiment is needed to learn which one produces more profit.
How is the potential monthly increase calculated?
Orders reaching B add the margin earned on their larger basket. Orders staying below B add the shipping cost the merchant no longer pays. The selected shopper split combines both paths while holding conversion steady.
What if shoppers stay below the new threshold?
If they still complete the order and paid shipping covers the fulfillment cost, the merchant keeps the shipping subsidy that would previously have been paid. The calculator treats that as the stay-below path.
Which monthly orders should I model?
For a realistic screen, model orders with subtotals from current threshold A to below candidate B. Use every monthly order only if all of them fit that range.
Does the average mean every order had the same value?
No. When every modeled order reaches B, the group average produces the same total basket lift as adding every individual order. In a mixed scenario, the calculator assumes the reach-B and stay-below groups share that average. Which orders actually choose each path can only be learned from a real test.
Does this calculator find the optimal threshold?
No. It compares the candidates and assumptions you enter. Only a real experiment can determine which threshold is most profitable with your shoppers.